The first storm we were on was just north of Woodward, OK and we stayed with it for close to an hour. It produced several rapidly rotating wall clouds and a funnel cloud or two, but no tornadoes.

As we saw another storm popping up to the south, we ditched the storm we were on in favor of the southern storm. Again, this storm produced several rapidly rotating wall clouds and a few funnel clouds, but no tornadoes. I don’t think I have ever seen so much rotation in a wall cloud before that did not produce a tornado. We were beginning to get a little discouraged, but we knew there was still plenty of time, so we carried on.

As we saw another storm forming to the south of this one, we once again abandoned the current storm in favor of the southern one. Nearly everyone else was still on the first or second storm, so we found ourselves in perfect position on Highway 281, nearly all alone, to intercept this next storm. This turned out to be the best possible move.

The very first tornado produced by this storm.

Seemingly out of nowhere, this storm produced a small, brief tornado. We were still several miles away from the tornado, but had a clear view of everything. The storm was moving northeast and was going to eventually cross Highway 281 so we drove a little ways north and just waited for the storm to come to us.

Before the storm crossed the highway it produced one more brief, weak tornado only a few hundred yards off to our west. A few minutes later the extremely low and rapidly rotating wall cloud crossed to road about 200 yards in front of us. At this point we were still about the only people on the road as everyone else was booking it south to try to get on this storm.

This was the 3rd tornado produced by this storm. If you look closely you can see debris at the surface being kicked up by this tornado.

As the wall cloud crossed the road, it finally produced another tornado about 250-300 yards to the east of Highway 281. The tornado was fairly large (150-300 yards wide) and continued to grow as it moved to the northeast. We took a dirt road east off of Highway 281 and positioned ourselves perfectly to watch this tornado continue to the northeast. The ground circulation was very impressive at times as it moved through fields and trees.

The tornado continued off to the northeast over open country less than half a mile away.

The tornado began to shrink in size as it hit an oil refinery and smoke started getting “sucked” into the storm (as seen in the footage below). At this same time, another tornado began to form just southwest of the current one. In a matter of seconds, we had twin tornadoes!

The original tornado began to shrink in size, though it remained strong as is visible by the amount of debris around the tornado.

These tornadoes lasted a couple of minutes before dissipating. As they dissipated we had to head back to Highway 281 and continue north to try to get back ahead of the storm. We could not continue east on the road we were on thanks to a river.

The storm produced twin tornadoes!

As we headed north, we were able to keep the storm in sight, though it was a few miles away. We watched this same storm produce 5 additional tornadoes, including two after dark as we tried to get back ahead of it. Unfortunately the road network was very poor in this area and we had to head about 20 miles east on a highway before we could cut back north to catch up to this storm.

By this time the storm was too far away and we decided to call it a day and head home. We stopped in Blackwell, OK for dinner, then continued southward on I-35 towards Norman. As we were heading south I noticed the same storm we were on most of the day was heading for southeastern Wichita, right where I live.

There were reports of a confirmed tornado and the area of rotation looked to have passed directly over my apartment. Looking at the path of the tornado released by the ICT NWS office, the tornado did indeed pass over my apartment! Luckily, only a few tree branches were down around my complex.

Path of the Wichita, KS tornado Saturday night. Embedded in the photo is a place marker with the location of my apartment.

The more significant tornado damage occurred just down the road at a friends apartment complex. Here, at least one apartment building lost a portion of its roof, and a tree branch was shot like a projectile through a car! The tornado was rated a EF-1 at her complex and a EF-3 to the southwest of this area.

A tree branch was "shot" through this car in southeast Wichita, KS. This photo was taken by my friend Becky Elliott at her apartment.

Over the weekend I ended up driving 1,275 miles and saw 2 tornadoes Friday night and 9 on Saturday, totaling 11 tornadoes. This brings my tornado count to 33!

As we head into this afternoon, dewpoints will be appreciably higher across Oklahoma and far southern Kansas. Dewpoints will rise into the middle and upper 60s with the help of evapotranspiration.

• CAPE is generally progged to be 2,000-2,500 J/Kg, with values upwards of 3,000 J/Kg evident on the NAM. That is more than enough CAPE for severe storms.
• The LCL levels will be very low tomorrow thanks to the moisture rich airmass that will be in place.
• Low and mid-level lapse rates will be steep (on the order of 8-8.5 C/Km for low-level lapse rates and 6-6.5 C/Km mid-level lapse rates).

There will be no CIN ahead of the dryline by 21-22Z, and the convergence along the dryline should be more than enough to fire several storms late in the afternoon/early evening. These storms will fire across western Oklahoma and possibly as far north as south central Kansas.

The storms will likely remain isolated for a few hours, including for a little while after dark. The surface winds will be backed and winds will veer with height. As the low-level jet kicks in around 00Z and thereafter, hodographs will become large and curved.

00Z NAM hodograph valid 03Z April 14, 2012 near El Reno, OK. Image courtesy TwisterData.

The overall environment is ripe for tornadoes, and any storm that fires will rapidly become severe with a potential for tornadoes. In addition to the tornado threat, large hail to the size of softballs and damaging winds to 70 mph will be possible. One or two tornadoes may even be strong and long tracked.

Late at night the storms will become clustered and it appears that a MCS may form across northern Oklahoma/southeastern Kansas with the main threat transitioning to damaging winds/large hail.

If everything stays on track with this morning’s 12Z runs, I believe the SPC will upgrade to a moderate risk for today. Below is my outlook for today’s severe weather.

Threat Level Red: Severe thunderstorms are likely in the areas outlined above late tomorrow afternoon/evening throughout tomorrow night.

Severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon/evening through the overnight hours across the area outlined above. The area encased in the black dashed lines will see a heightened threat for tornadoes for a several hour period, including after dark. Nighttime tornadoes are extremely dangerous. Make sure to heed all NWS warnings without question.

A widespread severe weather outbreak is shaping up for Saturday across the southern Plains and northern Missouri Valley, but unfortunately I do not have time to write up a discussion about tomorrow. This is a life-threatening situation, both today and tomorrow, so make sure to have your NOAA weather radios turned on, and if a warning is issued for your area, take shelter IMMEDIATELY!

Below is the current outlook for severe weather tomorrow. This is only the 4th Day 2 “High Risk” issued by the SPC since 1996. This should tell you just how rare this is, and that they are expecting a “widespread tornado outbreak”. Be sure to stay tuned to the SPC and the NWS for future outlooks, watches, and warnings.

The SPC outlook for tomorrow, Saturday, April 14, 2012.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

A shortwave trough will move through western Kansas early Thursday morning and then into eastern Kansas by the early afternoon. This will likely cause a band of showers and thunderstorms to move across this entire area. The stronger thunderstorms may contain small hail, though no severe weather is expected with this batch of storms.

This will help build the cap across western Kansas and western Oklahoma. Once the clouds break in the early afternoon, ample daytime heating will allow temperatures to rise into the middle and upper 70s (low 80s west of the dryline) with dewpoints in the mid-50s to lower 60s.

This will cause the low-level lapse rates to be near dry adiabatic, helping to offset the marginal 6-6.5 C/Km mid-level lapse rates. CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/Kg is expected from western Kansas southward, although this will be dependent on the morning convection/associated cloud cover.

As the low-level jet kicks in during the evening, the hodographs become fairly impressive, especially with the NAM. Large curved hodographs are evident and would indicate the potential for a few tornadoes.

12Z 4/11/12 NAM hodograph valid 00Z 4/13/12 near Dodge City, KS. Image courtesy TwisterData.

The severe threat on Thursday will be confined to far southwestern Nebraska/western Kansas southward through western Oklahoma/far eastern Texas panhandle, and into portions of western Texas. The combination of early afternoon convection and the western extent of the dryline will not prove favorable for severe weather any farther east than this. The best chance for tornadoes will occur across western Kansas into western Oklahoma/far eastern Texas panhandle. Other threats will be wind gusts to 70 mph and hail to the size of tennis balls.

Friday, April 13, 2012

Early afternoon showers and storms will fire across northern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and eastern Kansas. There appears to be enough instability and deep layer shear for some of the storms to become strong to severe. However, the main threat for severe weather will occur during the evening hours into the night across much of central and eastern Kansas, much of Oklahoma, and far northern Texas.

The best chance for tornadoes across this area will be near or after dark as the LLJ really kicks in. As this happens, hodographs become very favorable for tornadoes across nearly the entire aforementioned area. Due to the likely nighttime nature of these tornadoes and the big cities in the path for severe weather (Wichita, Oklahoma City, Wichita Falls), this is shaping up to be a dangerous situation. In addition to the tornado threat, large hail to the size of softballs and wind gusts to 75 mph are expected.

Saturday, April 14, 2012

Saturday is looking to be the day with the best chance for tornadoes, including strong and long lived ones. A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across much of Kansas and Oklahoma. Hodographs are extremely impressive on the NAM and ECMWF (not too much worse on the GFS), and all severe parameters will be in place across a large area.

Any right moving supercell will greatly enhance the SRH by 100-150 m2/s2 and the environment will be that much more conducive for tornadoes. In addition to the tornado threat across this area, large hail to the size of softballs, and damaging wind gusts to 80 mph are expected.

12Z 4/11/12 NAM Hodograph near Norman, OK, valid 00Z 4/15/12. Photo courtesy TwisterData.

The severe threat will extend northward into western Missouri, eastern Nebraska, and southern Iowa as well. All severe modes will be possible across this area, with the best chance for tornadoes coming with any storm that can get rooted to the warm front.

Overall, Saturday looks to be a very dangerous day for severe weather from eastern Nebraska, southern Iowa, southward across Kansas/western Missouri, Oklahoma, and into northern Texas. I will have a more detailed outlook for Saturday later this week along with a severe weather map.

A cu field was beginning to go up to our northwest, so we decided to head just a little farther northwest to Fort Supply. We hung out for a while on some back roads as the thunderstorms began to build to our north. At the time, the storms were moving straight east, but we knew that once they became surface based they would turn more to the south southeast so we stayed put.

A thunderstorm was beginning to intensify to the north of Ft. Supply, OK.

From Ft. Supply we headed east towards State Highway 34. A few miles west of State Hwy. this northern storm produced a rapidly rotating wall cloud and came very close to producing a tornado on multiple occasions. At this time another storm moving in from the south began colliding with the northern storm, cutting off the inflow and effectively killing the wall cloud.

A wall cloud came very close to producing a tornado on multiple occasions between Fort Supply and State Hwy. 34. Photo by Becky Elliott.

We hung out in this area for a little while waiting to see what the storms would do after they merged. Shortly after, they became surface based and started turning to the south southeast. This put the storm on a direct path to the Woodward, OK area.

We had no internet and our phones would only update every once in a while, so we really didn’t know what all was going on. We made a few phone calls and had a basic idea that a massive hail core was about to pass right over Woodward. We knew we needed to get south, but seeing as State Hwy. 34 was really our only south option we waited for the core to pass off to the east.

A few minutes later we headed south to Woodward. We ran into the northern edge of the hail core and encountered sporadic hail to the size of half dollars or so. As we ventured into the north side of Woodward, we came across the biggest hail I have ever seen. A majority of the hail on the ground was at least the size of baseballs, with a few pieces just over 4 inches!

Picture of the 4 inch hail that fell in north Woodward, OK.

After stopping to take some pictures of the massive hail, we began our trek south once again. The view of the storm at this point was unbelievable. We were right under the largest meso-cyclone we had ever seen. The entire meso was several miles wide and contained very rigorous rotation.

Looking up at the edge of the large meso-cyclone over Woodward, OK. Photo by Becky Elliott.

As we headed just south of Woodward, we were getting reports of a tornado and within a few seconds we saw it just off to our north. We rushed to get out of the car and get video and pictures, but by the time we got out of the vehicle it was already lifting.

Image of the tornado just after it started lifting. Photo by Becky Elliott.

We continued a little west to try to get out from underneath the meso. Approximately 1 mile down the road we pulled over to get a better view of the storm. The previous tornado touched down about 2.5 miles from where we were at this point and we were still under the edge of the large meso.

Out of no where, a couple of people next to us yelled “tornado on the ground!” and were pointing to a field right next to us. We looked but didn’t see anything. After a few seconds we saw some dirt being kicked up about 150 yards away, and the area of dirt being kicked up began to grow very quickly. It was at this point that we realized it was a small tornado (or maybe even just a spin-up on the rear flank downdraft) and we took off for the car. This small tornado was upon us before we could even run a few feet to the vehicle.

Winds of 70-80 mph quickly hit us right as we jumped in the car. I had trouble closing my door, but after a second attempt managed to pull it shut. We then gunned it out of there and drove another mile or so down the road. Everyone else who was pulled over on the road with us made it out safely as well.

This image was taken by Becky Elliott just moments before the small tornado hit us. There was no indication what-so-ever that a tornado was about to form right here. This just goes to show you how quickly tornadoes can form.

When we finally pulled over we looked back on the storm and could not believe what we saw. The meso-cyclone was huge and was extremely close to the ground! It was perhaps the most beautiful sight I have ever seen.

An image of the most incredible meso-cyclone I have ever seen near Sharon, OK! Photo by Becky Elliott.

Several tornadoes touched down under this meso and most were short-lived. Unfortunately, from our vantage point, they are not visible here.

A bowl shaped wall cloud nearly produced a tornado just northeast of Vici. Photo by Becky Elliott.

We were told that a hail core was going to pass either right over Vici or just to the west of town. We didn’t want to be stuck in the hail core, so we decided to head west 5 or 6 miles to avoid the core. We pulled over about 4 miles west of town to look back on the storm when out of no where, a golf ball sized piece of hail landed right at our feet. We immediately went back into the car and continue west. However, we were too late. In just a matter of moments hail close to baseball size started falling and I pulled over off the road next to a few pine trees for protection.

Taking shelter behind a few pine trees to protect us from the large hail. Photo taken by Becky Elliott.

After about 5 minutes of hail, we were in the clear and only suffered one minor dent on the hood. One gentleman a couple hundred yards in front of us wasn’t so lucky, however. He had a near baseball sized piece of hail shatter his entire back window.

Near baseball sized hail was falling all around my car!

When it was all said and done, we saw 5 tornadoes (one or two may have been “RFD spin-ups”) and measured 4 inch hail. We would have been able to position ourselves better in location to the storm had we had internet, but this was the best we could do chasing practically blind, and I’d say we did pretty good!

We were treated to a beautiful sunset on the way home. Photo by Becky Elliott.

What we saw:

Severe Storms – 8
Tor-warned Storms – 2
Tornadoes – 5
Biggest Hail – 4.1″

One hypothesis offered to explain this phenomenon is that strong winds or water spouts traveling over water sometimes pick up creatures such as fish or frogs, and carry them for up to several miles. Sometimes the animals survive the fall, however, other times, the animals are frozen to death or completely encased in ice. This would suggest the animals were suspended aloft for a lengthy amount of time.

One of the strangest events is a recurring “shower of fish” that falls between the months of May and July in the Honduran Departamento de Yoro. They even have a festival named after it called, the Festival de la Lluvia de Peces (Rain of Fish Festival). The people of Yoro celebrate the free fish every year and cook them for meals.

Yoro man cooking fish that "rained" from the sky. Credit: Oddee.com

The most recent occurrence of this was on January 13, 2012 when residents of Loreto, Agusan del Sur, Philippines experienced dozens of 3-inch-long mudfish raining on them.

There were 15 tornadoes confirmed within the FWD WFO territory. A total of 55 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and 18 Tornado Warnings were issued by the Fory Worth NWS office between 7:32 and 8:13 pm CDT.

Screen capture of tractor trailers being tossed in Lancaster, TX from a tornado. Image courtesy WFAA-TV.

Extensive damage occurred in many areas with roofs being ripped off of homes, tractor trailers tossed, and trees uprooted. There were no serious injuries or deaths, thanks in part to timely warnings.

Damage in southeast Dallas, courtesy NewChannel 5 in Dallas.

Confirmed tornadoes:

1. EF-3 tornado near Forney, in Kaufman County. The path length was 8 miles and the width was approximately 150 yards.
2. EF-2 tornado in Kennedale and Arlington. The path length was 4.6 miles, and the path width was approximately 150 yards.
3. EF-2 tornado in Lancaster and Dallas. The path length was 7.1 miles, and the width was approximately 200 yards.
4. EF-2 tornado near Royse City, beginning in Rockwall County before moving northeast into Hunt County. The path length was 3.1 miles, and the width was approximately 400 yards.
5. EF-1 tornado southeast of Joshua, in Johnson county. The path length was 1.1 miles and the path width was approximately 60 yards wide.
6. EF-0 tornado approximately 6 miles south of Greenville. The path length was one half mile and the width was approximately 50 yards.
7. EF-0 tornado near Sulphur Springs. The path length was approximately one half mile and the width was approximately 50 yards.
8. EF-0 tornado in the city of Irving. The path length was 1.4 miles and the with was 40 yards.
9. EF-0 tornado in Dallas near Skyline High School. The path length was 0.1 mile and the width was 25 yards.
10. EF-0 tornado in the far southern portion of the city of Denton. The path length was 0.25 mile and the width was 50 yards.
    
11. EF-0 tornado 6 miles northwest of Winnsboro, in far southeastern Hopkins County. The path length was approximately one half mile and the width was approximately 25 yards.
12. EF-0 tornado in the northern sections of Grand Prarie. The path length was 0.4 miles and the width was 60 yards.
    
13. EF-0 tornado in Mesquite. The path length was 0.3 miles, and the width was approximately 30 yards.
14. EF-0 tornado 4 miles south of Cumby, in Hunt County. The path length was one quarter mile and the width was approximately 25 yards.
15. EF-0 tornado 2 miles southwest of Sulphur Springs, in Hopkins County. The path length was one tenth of a mile and the width was approximately 25 yards.

In addition to the tornadoes, very large hail to the size of softballs caused extensive damage. Over 100 planes at the DFW airport were damaged from hail and the airport was completely shut down.

Softball sized hail in Texas, courtesy twitter user @BlairMiller9.

The FWD WFO issued a total of 73 warnings (severe thunderstorm and tornado) with an unofficial average lead time of 25.5 minutes.

Image of all 73 warnings issued by the FWD WFO.

A pneumonia front is a lake-modified synoptic scale cold front that results in a one-hour temperature drop of at least 16 °F. These occur off the western shores of Lake Michigan and only a few have ever occurred in history.

These occur during the warm season when the waters of Lake Michigan are still relatively cold. Pneumonia fronts form along the southwestern shoreline in part because the colder water temperatures farther north help to create a stronger near-shore temperature gradient. Another reason, as discovered by Behnke (2005), is due to the “reduced roughness” along the southwestern shorelines. In other words, the terrain along this part of the shore provides much less friction as compared to areas farther north (fewer trees and flatter). This is clearly visible in the topography map below.

Topography of Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Courtesy CIMSS.

As warm air surges northward over the much colder lake, a sharply defined boundary (pneumonia front) will form along the shoreline and then quickly move inland. These tend to occur out ahead of an approaching cold front as compressional warming takes place, tightening this temperature gradient very rapidly.

Winds behind the pneumonia front will gust 30-40 mph and temperatures will very quickly plummet. In 2008 a pneumonia front moved through Chicago, and the western portions of the city were 40+ degrees warmer than the eastern half of the city as the front was moving inland. Here is a link to a radar animation of this front in 2008.

A pneumonia front is expected to move through the Milwaukee and Chicago areas tomorrow (Thursday) evening. The NAM is clearly picking up on this as can be seen by the abrupt drop in temperatures shown below.

Temperatures falling at KCGX Thursday in response to a pneumonia front.

Temperatures will very quickly plummet tomorrow, especially across the Chicago area. It will go from feeling like summer time to feeling like late winter or early spring in less than one hour.

Below is a list of all the confirmed tornadoes from the NWS that occurred on March 2, 2012. Tornadoes that crossed state lines will only be counted once.

**All data are preliminary and subject to change**

Fatalities
IN:  13
OH: 3
KY: 21
TN: 0
AL:  1
MS: 0
GA: 1
NC: 0
SC: 0
IL:  0
VA: 0
Total : 39

Indiana (4)

• EF-4 (175 mph) in Henryville (continued into Kentucky). Length: 49 miles; Width: 0.4 miles; Injuries: unknown; Fatalities: 11
• EF-3 (145 mph) near Holton (Ripley county). Length: 9 miles; Width: 350 yards; Injuries: 6; Fatalities: 2
• EF-2 (125 mph) in Posey county. Length: 6 miles; Width: 140 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (110 mph) in Clark county. Length: 6.5 miles; Width: 60 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0

Ohio (7)

• EF-3 (160 mph) in Clermont/Brown counties (entered Ohio from Kentucky). Length: 23 miles; Width: 1/4 mile; Injuries: unknown; Fatalities: 3
• EF-2 (125 mph) in Adams county. Length: 11 miles; Width: 1/4 mile; Injuries: 3; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (100 mph) in Adams county. Length: 3 miles; Width: 400 yards; Injuries: unknown; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (80 mph) in Scioto/Pike counties. Length: 4 miles; Width: 200 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (75 mph) in Adams county. Length: 50 yards; Width: 25 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (75 mph) in Scioto county. Length: 2 miles; Width: 100 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (75 mph) in Pike county. Length: 2 miles; Width: 100 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0

Kentucky (14)

• EF-4 (175 mph) in the Crittenden area (Grant and Kenton counties). Length: 10 miles; Width: 1/2 mile; Injuries: 8; Fatalities: 4
• EF-3 (160 mph) in Magoffin (Salyersville)/Johnson/Martin/Wolfe counties (continued 1 mile into WV). Length: 49 miles; Width: 0.75 miles; Injuries: ?; Fatalities: 2
• EF-3 (140 mph) in Menifee (Wellington) and Morgan counties (West Liberty) (continued into WV). Length: 86 miles; Width: 1 mile; Injuries: 75; Fatalities: 10
• EF-3 (140 mph) in Trimble county. Length: 3.4 miles; Width: 75 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-2 (125 mph) in Laurel county. Length: 6.3 miles; Width: 310 yards; Injuries: ?; Fatalities: 5
• EF-2 (125 mph) in Owen county. Length: 5 miles; Width: 150 yards; Injuries: 3; Fatalities: 0
• EF-2 (120 mph) in Breckinridge and Hancock counties. Length: 17.4 miles; Width: 200 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-2 (120 mph) in Union county. Length: 6.5 miles; Width: 200 yards; Injuries: 1; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (100 mph) in Bath county. Length: 7.5 miles; Width: 250 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (100 mph) in Trimble county. Length: 2.7 miles; Width: 100 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (95 mph) near Locust in Carroll county. Length: 2.5 miles; Width: 150 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (95 mph) in Simpson and Warren counties. Length: 1/2 mile; Width: 60 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (85 mph) in Bracken county. Length: 0.1 mile; Width: 50 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (75 mph) in Meade county. Length: 3/4 mile; Width: 30 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0

Tennessee (13)

• EF-3 (165 mph) in Hamilton/Bradley counties. Length: 25.4 miles; Width: 400 yards; Injuries: unknown; Fatalities: 0
• EF-2 (130 mph) in Monroe county. Length: 14.9 miles; Width: 400 yards; Injuries: unknown; Fatalities: 0
• EF-2 (130 mph) in McMinn county. Length: 10.5 miles; Width: 120 yards; Injuries: unknown; Fatalities: 0
• EF-2 (125 mph) in the Rickman area (Jackson/Putnam/Overton counties). Length: 11.3 miles; Width: 1/2 mile; Injuries: 3; Fatalities: 0
• EF-2 (120 mph) in Claiborne county. Length: 2.7 miles; Width: 250 yards; Injuries: unknown; Fatalities: 0
• EF-2 (120 mph) near Murphy. Length: ?; Width: ?; Injuries: ?; Fatalities: 0 **Incomplete, survey ongoing**
• EF-1 (100 mph) in Marion county. Length: 1/2 mile; Width: 100 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (100 mph) in Marion county. Length: 0.2 miles; Width: 70 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (90 mph) south of Kingston Springs (Cheatham county). Length: 1 mile; Width:100 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (80 mph) in Rhea county. Length: 2.7 miles; Width: 75 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (80 mph) in Knox county. Length: 2.1 miles; Width: 100 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (80 mph) in Knox county. Length: 0.31 miles; Width: 70 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (65 mph) in Lincoln county. Length: 0.6 miles; Width: 50 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0

Alabama (9)

• EF-3 (140 mph) in Limestone and Madison counties. Length: 34.03 miles; Width: 250 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-2 (130 mph) in Madison county. Length: 7.3 miles; Width: 250 yards; Injuries: Unknown; Fatalities: 0
• EF-2 (125 mph) in Jackson’s Gap area (Tallapoosa/Chambers counties). Length: 34.26 miles; Width: 1000 yards; Injuries: 2; Fatalities: 1
• EF-2 (125 mph) in Verbena area (Chilton/Coosa counties). Length: 28.58 miles; Width: 700 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (110 mph) in Lowndes county. Length: 17.64 miles; Width: 400 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (105 mph) in Perry, Dallas, and Autauga counties. Length: 18.99 miles; Width: 750 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (100 mph) in Limestone county. Length: 2.6 miles; Width: 150 yards; Injuries: Unknown; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (85 mph) in Limestone county. Length: 4.99 miles; Width: 75 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (75 mph) in Limestone county. Length: 2.74 miles; Width: 50 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0

Mississippi (2)

• EF-1 (100 mph) in Lamar and Forrest counties. Length: 12 miles; Width: 300 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (85 mph) in Lamar and Forrest counties. Length: 1/4 mile; Width: 50 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0

Georgia (5)

• EF-3 (165 mph) in Haralson/Paulding counties. Length: 29 miles; Width: 200 yards; Injuries: 1; Fatalities: 0
• EF-3 (140 mph) in Lowndes/Lanier counties. Length: 10.9 miles; Width: 390 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (100 mph) in Cobb county. Length: 1.4 miles; Width: 150 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0
• EF-0 (?) in Miller county. Length: ?; Width: ?; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0 **Incomplete, survey ongoing**
• EF-0 (?) in Decatur county. Length: 3.37 miles; Width: ?; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0 **Incomplete, survey ongoing**

North Carolina (3)

• EF-2 (135 mph) 9 miles ENE of Charlotte (Mecklenburg county). Length: 3.2; Width: 200 yards; Injuries: 4; Fatalities: 0
• EF-2 (120 mph) in Cherokee county. Length: ?; Width: ?; Injuries: ?; Fatalities: 0 **Incomplete, survey ongoing**
• EF-0 (70 mph) in Jackson county. Length: 1.7 miles; Width: 300 yards; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0

South Carolina (1)

• EF-0 (?) in Richland county. Length: ?; Width: ?; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0 **Incomplete, survey ongoing**

Illinois (1)

• EF-0 (?) near Trenton in Clinton county. Length: ?; Width: ?; Injuries: 0; Fatalities: 0 **Incomplete, survey ongoing**

Virginia (2)

• EF-1 (110 mph) in Ewing (Lee county-entered from TN). Length: 4.8 miles; Width: 200 yards; Injuries: ?; Fatalities: 0
• EF-1 (95 mph) in Jonesville. Length: 1 mile; Width: 100 yards; Injuries: ?; Fatalities: 0

LIST OF ALL CONFIRMED TORNADOES

**All data are preliminary**

Fatalities
IN:  12
OH: 3
KY: 18
GA: 1
AL:  1
Total : 35

Tornadoes were been reported in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Virginia. There were 279 tornado warnings and 375 severe thunderstorm warnings issued. There were 99 (filtered) tornado reports, 223 wind reports, and 286 hail reports, totaling 608 total severe weather reports.

Southern Indiana and Kentucky have been the two hardest hit areas so far. Tornadoes were responsible for 12 deaths in Indiana, where Clark County Sheriff’s Department Maj. Chuck Adams said the town of Marysville is “completely gone.” There were four deaths in Jefferson County, four in Washington County, three in Scott County, and two in Ripley County.

Henryville, Indiana was also hit especially hard. The Henryville high school suffered major damage and is pictured below.

Damage to the Henryville, IN high school from a tornado. Source.

The NWS is reporting that at least 5 tornadoes may have touched down in southwestern Ohio causing at least 1 death near Bethel. The village of Moscow in Ohio was hit hard and some homes there were severely damaged.

There were at least five injuries in the Huntsville, Alabama area from a tornado and several houses were leveled. A state maximum security prison about 10 miles from Huntsville was damaged, but none of the inmates escaped. The roof was damaged on two large prison dormitories that each hold about 250 men. Part of the perimeter fence was knocked down, but the prison was secure.

A classic supercell blasted through the town of West Liberty, KY and is pictured below. Damage is reported to be very significant in this area. Photo is courtesy texasstormchasers.com.

A classic supercell tore through West Liberty, KY causing significant damage.

From the Louisville NWS regarding storm surveys tomorrow: “Teams will be following tornado tracks across southern Indiana, Trimble and Henry counties in Kentucky, Hart County, Madison County, and southern Kentucky from Metcalfe County to Russell County.”

All of the tornado (red) and severe thunderstorm (yellow) warnings issued through 12:30 AM CT.

The Wilmington NWS will be surveying damage Saturday in Holton, Indiana (Ripley County), in Kentucky from Carrollton to Piner to Crittenden to Peach Grove, in Kentucky from Worthville to Dry Ridge, to Falmouth, ending across the river from Ripley, Ohio, in Ohio from Ripley to Bentonville to West Union to Otway to Lucasville, and in Ohio from Moscow to Hammersville to Peebles to Piketon. Other areas will likely be surveyed as well.

A large upper-level trough, currently over the western US, will continue to progress eastward tonight and deepen as it does so. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop across the southern Plains in response to this trough. This will will then move northeastward late tonight and tomorrow, deepening while it does so. The cold front that brought tornadoes to several states yesterday, will begin to move back northward as a warm front tonight, bringing warm, moist air with it. By tomorrow evening this warm front will be as far north as Lake Erie.

The surface low will track from central Oklahoma to Lake Huron by tomorrow night. An associated cold front will progress eastward through the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi Valleys, igniting severe storms.

Storms will first fire across far eastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and Arkansas after midnight tonight. These storms will be elevated and will have ample elevated CAPE to work with, on the order of 750-1500 J/Kg. For most of tonight these storms will mainly pose a large hail threat, however, whenever the storms become surface based (likely sometime tomorrow morning) the tornado and damaging wind threat will drastically increase. Storms will fire farther eastward along the northward moving warm front as well late tonight. The same holds true with these storms.

As we head into tomorrow morning, additional storms will likely fire across southern Illinois/far western Kentucky. These storms will then progress east northeastward across southern Indiana/northern Kentucky. By noon these storms will likely be nearing southwestern Ohio.

Dewpoints across this area will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with CAPE on the order of 1000-1750 J/Kg. A potent shortwave trough will be moving across northern/central Missouri at this time, providing extra support for the storms. In general, the farther east across this area, the better the directional wind shear, and the better the chance for tornadoes. Any storm that gets rooted to the warm front will likely have the best shot at producing a tornado, possibly strong and possibly long lived.

As you head southward into Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama storms will fire ahead of the cold front around dusk or just after dark. The main threat with these storms will be damaging winds and hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. This line of storms will move eastward through this area overnight, likely producing a large swath of wind damage as the storms become linear.

Storms will likely fire across northern and central Indiana during the late afternoon. Additional storms will fire across western Ohio during the evening hours. These storms will move eastward through Ohio and will likely become severe, at least for a time. The directional wind shear across northeast Ohio is amazing (see Fig. 1), but the limited moisture and instability across the area will tend to drastically lower the tornado threat. Nonetheless, a few tornadoes are possible across this portion of Ohio along with damaging wind gusts in excess of 65 mph and hail to the size of golfballs. As the storms move into western Pennsylvania at night, the severe threat will begin to wane.

Just an example of how amazing the hodographs are across northeast Ohio. However, limited moisture and instability will drastically reduce the tornado threat here.

A few storms will fire during the daytime across portions of the Carolinas and may produce small hail and wind gusts to 55 mph.

A potential limiting factor across much of the western Tennessee Valley will be morning convection and cloud cover. I believe there is a high likelihood that the clouds will break up allowing for ample daytime heating, but if not this could inhibit storm development and severity across this area.

Below is my outlook for severe weather for tomorrow. I expect widespread severe storms within the red shaded areas. Storms here have the potential for isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, and large hail. I went with a Threat Level Black, meaning I expect a tornado outbreak across this area. I consider a tornado outbreak to consist of at least 20 confirmed tornadoes with at least 2 being of EF-3 intensity or stronger. The greatest threat in this area will be during the afternoon and evening.

Severe weather outlook for Friday, March 2, 2012. Threat Level Black.