I have finally had a chance to briefly take a look at things for Friday. It has been a busy last two days warning storms at work!
Sure looks like a nice severe weather setup. Once again I think the GFS is too fast, I like the timing of the ECMWF the best, especially since it handled the timing of the last two days the best…by far. Moisture shouldn’t be a problem seeing as the most recent front won’t even make it to the Gulf. Looking at the forecast soundings across the area, the damaging wind threat appears to be very high with a 60+ knot LLJ.
I think a big player, especially with tornadoes, will be the shortwave trough moving through the Kentucky/Tennessee area during the late afternoon/evening. Depending on timing and intensity, this could lead to a much better threat of tornadoes. It would cool the mid and upper levels, steepening the lapse rates and it would increase the shear over the area. Of course, there are several other factors that will determine the overall severity of the event, but I don’t have the time to talk about everything right now.
I will write a detailed blog post tomorrow evening (that’s as soon as I can due to work), but for now here is my outlook map. Overall it is pretty similar to the SPC’s outlook. The black dashed line is the area that may need to be upgraded depending on several factors. I will know much more tomorrow once all the data is over the US and has been sampled.